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    10/6/2008

    信心

    美国的次贷危机已经变为席卷全球的金融风暴,华尔街岌岌可危,美国终于通过了7000亿美元的救市方案,道琼斯指数却依然下跌,国内也是赶在十一长假结束前推出融资融券,央行重启中期票据发行支持上市公司回购股票,可是10月6号股市还是以暴跌5%以上的方式表达着自己的恐慌。如今的世界,我想缺少的不是金钱,而是对未来的信心。正如这几天温总理说的,信心比黄金还重要。所谓救市,无非是救投资者对未来的预期和信心。当大部分人对未来充满信心的时候,他们才会去消费,才会安心把钱放在银行里,才会去大胆的去为消费而贷款,才会去投资,个人的行为带动实体经济的发展,实体经济的发展又作用于金融系统,同时影响到虚拟经济,股市上涨,一片繁荣,于是信心更加膨胀,直到产生泡沫,再到泡沫破灭。反过来也是一样,大家都失去信心了,于是钱都牢牢握在手里,市场失去了流动性,同时消费减少,银根缩紧,实体经济开始收缩,股市下跌,资产价值缩水,企业破产,于是市场更加悲观,信心更小,直到有外力改变这种预期为止。市场永远不缺钱,缺失的只有信心。所有的经济表现,都是人性的表现,是人性决定了市场的行为。

    Comments (5)

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    准强 王wrote:
    呵呵,大家都不把投机当作生活的重心就好了,否则必然会有脚下虚浮的感觉,无论盈亏都是一样。
    小飞最近又飞到哪去了?
    Oct. 8
    nancywrote:
    再度证明:表象看起来越是繁华,潜伏的危机实际越是深重。居安思危,时时都要的。
    Oct. 8
    研究经济学必须要研究心理学。
    Oct. 7
    周频 柳wrote:
    准备过冬。
    Oct. 6
    Lyman Liwrote:
    人性不只是信心,还有贪婪
    Oct. 6

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